dollar short

The Potential For Yield Plunge As Dovish Theater

By |2019-05-17T16:35:09-04:00May 17th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Two on the same day, likely not coincidence. The next stage of “dovishness” may be upon us. It won’t be rate cuts; those won’t happen until all other excuses have been exhausted first. Jay Powell’s confused gang won’t give in until kicking and screaming there’s really nothing else left. The Fed “pause” isn’t working. To [...]

From TIC’s Big March Number Right To Powell’s Future Rate Cut(s)

By |2019-05-16T17:24:10-04:00May 16th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Perhaps it shouldn’t come as a surprise. After all, during the first quarter of this year several key banks announced they had had enough. Goldman Sachs, Nomura, Credit Suisse, as well as others, they all broadcast cuts to key operations. The FICC stuff, or bond trading to put it euphemistically. The very place the world [...]

China’s Dollar Problem Comes Out of the Shadows

By |2019-04-24T11:40:17-04:00April 24th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Once you see the whole thing, you can’t unsee it. But therein lies the problem. It is so far out there away from mainstream convention getting anyone to recognize what their eyes are recording is an enormous task. Even when someone happens to uncover, for themselves, a significant piece it is often too unfamiliar to [...]

Why 2011

By |2019-04-09T17:57:41-04:00April 9th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The eurodollar era saw not one but two credit bubbles. The first has been studied to death, though almost always getting it wrong. The Great Financial Crisis has been laid at the doorstep of subprime, a bunch of greedy Wall Street bankers insufficiently regulated to have not known any better. That was just a symptom [...]

Euro$ #4 Calls Off The Bond Rout, Even Though It Means Fiscal Situations Likely To Grow Worse Still

By |2019-04-05T16:11:09-04:00April 5th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Critics of government debt, a group which really should include every taxpayer, like to point out how governments prefer to pay back that debt with hugely inflated currency. You don’t pay it off so much as inflate it away. Change the convertibility number for your local currency and, voila, a much more manageable credit profile [...]

The Big Minus Wasn’t Actually China’s Big Contraction In Exports

By |2019-03-08T15:52:00-05:00March 8th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

More important than the US GDP number, more substantial than the February jobs report, what will linger for longer in the public consciousness is China’s trade data. It seems as if the big drop in exports has garnered the most immediate attention, I suspect that won’t be the case moving forward. There are more important [...]

China’s Big Money Gamble

By |2019-02-15T12:06:00-05:00February 15th, 2019|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While oil prices rebounded in January 2019 around the world, outside of crude commodities continued to struggle. According to the World Bank’s Pink Sheet, base metal prices fell another 1.8% on average from December. On an annual basis, these commodities as a group are about 16% below where they were in January 2018. The last [...]

Finally Some Real Data…For November

By |2019-02-01T15:45:57-05:00February 1st, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The payroll report wasn’t actually the first. The Treasury Department filed its Treasury International Capital (TIC) update yesterday, about two weeks late due to the federal government shutdown. However, since nobody follows it and the figures relate to a lot that’s beyond the US economy it doesn’t count in the mainstream view. That’s a shame [...]

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