COT

COT Black: Not Transitory, The Landmine In Crude Means A Lot More Than Crude

By |2019-08-07T10:57:12-04:00August 7th, 2019|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Supply glut or demand disappearing? We are back to asking that question again after four years. In late 2014 and early 2015, the conventional answer was shale. The US had begun producing so much oil there was a glut of supply. Without an outlet for it, all the crude began building up primarily in Cushing, [...]

COT Blue: Broad Interest For The Bond Next Move

By |2019-05-01T15:40:15-04:00May 1st, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In early February 1994, Alan Greenspan’s Fed would begin to raise the federal funds rate target for the first time in five years. Not since February 1989 had the FOMC thought economic conditions warranted an increase. In between, the 1990-91 recession which wasn’t especially bad, certainly not by contemporary standards set by the contractions in [...]

COT Blue: Distinct Lack of Green But A Lot That’s Gold

By |2019-04-23T18:49:42-04:00April 23rd, 2019|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Gold, in my worldview, can be a “heads I win, tails you lose” proposition. If it goes up, that’s fear. Nothing good. If it goes down, that’s collateral. In many ways, worse. Either way, it is only bad, right? Not always. There are times when rising gold signals inflation, more properly reflation perceptions. Determining which [...]

COT Blue: The Velocity of Capitulation

By |2019-02-11T13:06:32-05:00February 11th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On Friday, the CFTC posted its COT data for the first week in 2019. For crude oil, capitulation. For US Treasury bond futures, capitulation. In the latter financial market, unsurprisingly the net market position utterly collapsed during December. From a relatively high (meaning market overall short) +58k contracts that last week in November when everyone [...]

COT Black Is Partially Back With A Lot of Towels

By |2019-02-06T16:23:54-05:00February 6th, 2019|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is in a bit of a tough spot. Being subject to the federal government shutdown meant shutting down the various Commitment of Traders (COT) reports for all the products listed on the exchange. There are a lot of them. Though the government and therefore the CFTC has reopened, it [...]