consumer spending

Consumers Have To or Want To with Revolving Credit?

By |2019-09-11T17:00:04-04:00September 11th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Federal Reserve reported yesterday that revolving consumer credit in the US rose by a seasonally adjusted $10 billion in the month of July 2019. That was the largest single monthly increase since November 2017. Given how the latter month was related to “residual seasonality”, meaning Americans spending perhaps more than they wanted for the [...]

Factoring the Lumps in the (global) Slump

By |2019-08-09T19:15:28-04:00August 9th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The British manufacturing sector pulled the English economy into contraction for the first time since 2012. Real GDP declined by 0.2% Q/Q in the second quarter of 2019, another minus sign to add to the growing global list. Goods production fell sharply, down 2.3% in Q2 from Q1. It was the biggest decline since 2009. [...]

Income Revisions Ironically Detect The BOND ROUT!!! But Not The LABOR SHORTAGE!!!

By |2019-07-29T18:01:16-04:00July 29th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Chairman Powell’s hawkishness, so called, has made its way into the historical revisions for Personal Income estimates. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released today the annual benchmark revisions to NIPA, the National Income and Product Accounts, which apply to Personal Income and Personal Spending. We’ve already seen the results for GDP and underlying data [...]

GDP And Revisions Highlight The Vulnerabilities

By |2019-07-26T17:05:10-04:00July 26th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It usually takes them a little while, a couple of benchmark adjustments to better conform to the true shape. Today’s GDP report included the latest revisions to the underlying data. Overall, not much changed. The changes are applied to Q1 2014 and forward, upping Real GDP growth slightly in 2015, adding a little bit more [...]

Globally Synchronized, After All

By |2019-07-16T12:49:44-04:00July 16th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For there to be a second half rebound, there has to be some established baseline growth. Whatever might have happened, if it was due to “transitory” factors temporarily interrupting the economic track then once those dissipate the economy easily gets back on track because the track itself was never bothered. More and more, though, it [...]

US IP: May Was A Good Month And It Was Still ‘Manufacturing Recession’

By |2019-06-14T19:00:11-04:00June 14th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Whether or not a full-scale recession shows up in the US is an open question. There’s less of one in US industry. The “manufacturing recession” we last saw of Euro$ #3 is becoming clearer as a repeat property in Euro$ #4. According to the Federal Reserve, May was a relatively good month for industry – [...]

Retail Sales (US): Green Shoots Under the 3% Line?

By |2019-06-14T13:07:37-04:00June 14th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Retail Sales rose just 3.46% year-over-year (unadjusted) in May 2019. The estimate for April was revised substantially higher, now suggesting growth of 5.6%. Altogether, however, consumer spending continues to be unusually weak. How unusual? The 6-month average, a better gauge of growth conditions given the noisy nature of the series, is now below 3% for [...]

Global Doves Expire: China’s Big 3 Stats Put To Rest RRR Myths

By |2019-05-15T12:55:50-04:00May 15th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Fed has its pause. The ECB is going to conduct another T-LTRO. But of all the central bank responses to the “unexpected” global weakness of late 2018, the Chinese’s was supposed to be the leader. The most forceful pushback against a worldwide downturn was reported to have been the PBOC’s “powerful” RRR cuts. China’s [...]