construction

GDP And Revisions Highlight The Vulnerabilities

By |2019-07-26T17:05:10-05:00July 26th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It usually takes them a little while, a couple of benchmark adjustments to better conform to the true shape. Today’s GDP report included the latest revisions to the underlying data. Overall, not much changed. The changes are applied to Q1 2014 and forward, upping Real GDP growth slightly in 2015, adding a little bit more [...]

Housing: Going Wrong In The Few Things That Were Going Right

By |2019-07-18T17:23:50-05:00July 18th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It certainly doesn’t feel like a bubble. We’ve heard about home prices in many cities skyrocketing like there has been one, still there does seem to be something different. If it is a bubble, it sure isn’t the same as the last one, the big one fifteen years ago. Much is missing this time around. [...]

Three-For-One In Poor Housing Data

By |2019-05-21T12:16:49-05:00May 21st, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We all know the shorthand. The Federal Reserve influences if not controls economic activity by raising and lowering the federal funds apparatus. Reducing the monetary policy targets is stimulus because everyone loves lower interest costs. Raising them therefore has the opposite effect. More direct and visible consequences are supposed to be observed first in the [...]

No Building Left To Build A Boom

By |2019-03-04T18:26:44-05:00March 4th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For the last several years, the US recovery following its experience with the global 2015-16 downturn has been lacking in several key dimensions. Reflation #3 in the real economy has reflected the lack of momentum and altitude in the snapback across the eurodollar system. As such, of all the reflation episodes this last one was [...]

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