composite pmi

It All Comes Down To The Service Sector

By |2019-09-05T18:00:57-04:00September 5th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was framed as a good news/bad news sort of situation. For many, the entire issue of possible recession revolves around the service sector. As far as manufacturing goes, no one will argue otherwise; it’s already in trouble. But it’s a much smaller slice of overall economic activity, and unless we are talking 2008 levels [...]

Way Beyond The ‘12%’

By |2019-08-22T19:09:38-04:00August 22nd, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s becoming fashionable again to dismiss manufacturing. In 2015, we heard repeatedly how it represented only 12% of overall economic output. Any minor problems affecting such a small slice would surely be nothing much for the other seven-eights of the economy to overcome. There was no way Yellen’s rate hikes and the booming recovery they [...]

Germany Struggles On

By |2019-07-24T16:05:18-04:00July 24th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The popular image of the German industrial machine politics is one which has Germany’s massive factories efficiently churning out goods for trade with the South of Europe (Club Med). Because of the common currency, numerous disparities starting with productivity differences had left the South highly indebted to the North just as the Global Financial Crisis [...]

US Economic Crosscurrents Reach the 50 Mark

By |2019-07-24T15:49:08-04:00July 24th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In the official narrative, the economy is robust and resilient. The fundamentals, particularly the labor market, are solid. It’s just that there has arisen an undercurrent or crosscurrent of some other stuff. Central bankers initially pointed the finger at trade wars and the negative “sentiment” it creates across the world but they’ve changed their view [...]

Behind The Blame Game, A Nastier #4

By |2019-06-21T11:57:48-04:00June 21st, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

After what is all but certain to be the final “rate hike” in this cycle, Bloomberg reported that President Trump had previously explored all possible legal ramifications of demoting Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell. The issue has become a major one, in the media, anyway, now that Mr. Powell has indicated his error. There will [...]

If You’ve Lost The ISM…

By |2019-01-04T16:54:38-05:00January 4th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

These transition periods are often just this sort of whirlwind. One day the economy looks awful, the next impervious to any downside. Today, it has been the latter with the BLS providing the warm comfort of headline payrolls. For now, it won’t matter how hollow. Yesterday, completely different story. Apple got it started downhill and [...]