The Real Boom Potential

By |2019-11-08T16:08:52-05:00November 8th, 2019|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy|

For the last five years Larry Summers has called it secular stagnation. It’s the right general idea as far as the result, if totally wrong as to its cause. Alvin Hansen, who first coined the term and thought up the thesis in the thirties, was thoroughly disproved by the fifties. Some, perhaps many Economists today [...]

More Synchronized, More Downturn, Still Global

By |2019-10-31T20:44:02-04:00October 31st, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

China was the world economy’s best hope in 2017. Like it was the only realistic chance to push out of the post-2008 doldrums, a malaise that has grown increasingly spasmatic and dangerous the longer it goes on. Communist authorities, some of them, anyway, reacted to Euro$ #3’s fallout early on in 2016 by dusting off [...]

Is The Negativity Overdone?

By |2019-09-09T18:40:36-04:00September 9th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Give stimulus a chance, that’s the theme being set up for this week. After relentless buying across global bond markets distorting curves, upsetting politicians and the public alike, central bankers have responded en masse. There were more rate cuts around the world in August than there had been at any point since 2009. And there’s [...]

Copper Confirmed

By |2019-09-03T19:33:19-04:00September 3rd, 2019|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Copper prices behave more deliberately than perhaps prices in other commodity markets. Like gold, it is still set by a mix of economic (meaning physical) and financial (meaning collateral and financing). Unlike gold, there doesn’t seem to be any rush to get to wherever the commodity market is going. Over the last several years, it [...]

China Throws More ‘Stimulus’ At The Wall

By |2019-08-27T12:31:19-04:00August 27th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Earlier this year, Chinese authorities reduced the VAT tax the government charges auto manufacturers. Intended to boost consumption, the levy was reduced from 16% to 13% in the hope automakers would pass along the savings to consumers. Many if not most manufacturers did. The results were immediate, and fleeting. In the month of March 2019, [...]

The Fingerprints of Bumbling (China)

By |2019-08-21T17:46:46-04:00August 21st, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For a cabal of superpatient supergeniuses, the Chinese tend to play with fire quite often. According to many, the Communists have perfected the art of technocracy and are merely waiting out the impetuously free West. The dollar system will destroy itself (there’s the kernel of truth) allowing a perfectly positioned China to swoop in and [...]

China’s Superplan; Or, The Familiar (Dollar) Disorder of Bumbling Failure

By |2019-08-20T12:06:39-04:00August 20th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Always aspiring to technocratic greatness, China’s Communist Party is set up to run like clockwork. It’s supposed to go off in predestined fashion, a course programmed into the vast apparatus by highly proficient experts. It is, or is supposed to be, comforting that order and control over the complex main spheres of daily life can [...]