chicago fed national activity index

More Points For, And Pointing To, The Midpoint

By |2019-10-28T19:09:09-04:00October 28th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s not surprising that the Census Bureau would report another weird sideways trend in wholesale sales. After all, the agency has already produced that kind of pattern in the related data for durable goods. For reasons that aren’t going to be explained, economic activity across the supply chain from producers to consumers has been curtailed. [...]

Definitely A Downturn, But What’s Its Rate of Change?

By |2019-08-26T18:39:46-04:00August 26th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (NAI) fell to -0.36 in July. That’s down from a +0.10 in June. By itself, the change from positive to negative tells us very little, as does the absolute level below zero. What’s interesting to note about this one measure is the average but more so its rate of [...]

US Economic Crosscurrents Reach the 50 Mark

By |2019-07-24T15:49:08-04:00July 24th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

In the official narrative, the economy is robust and resilient. The fundamentals, particularly the labor market, are solid. It’s just that there has arisen an undercurrent or crosscurrent of some other stuff. Central bankers initially pointed the finger at trade wars and the negative “sentiment” it creates across the world but they’ve changed their view [...]

The Chicago Way Isn’t Even Partway And It’s Still Not Good For Powell, US Economy

By |2019-05-20T16:37:51-04:00May 20th, 2019|Markets|

In March 1999, Economists James Stock of Harvard and Mark Watson of Princeton published a paper in the Journal of Monetary Economics seeking answers for an inflation problem. For many years, it had been accepted that the unemployment rate was the only measure of economic activity necessary to infer inflation. The implications were enormous, especially [...]


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