business cycle

Wholesale, Inventory, And The Raised Risk of Recession

By |2019-08-08T17:36:56-05:00August 8th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Any recession still retains its inventory roots. Back when manufacturing ruled the US economy, an unanticipated buildup would be all it took to trigger one. Goods would begin stacking up on the wholesale level once retailers found it harder to move what they already had. This in turn caused wholesalers to put the brakes on [...]

Global Doves Expire: A Hundred Years of US IP Give Bond Market Another Win

By |2019-05-15T16:34:54-05:00May 15th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Federal Reserve has been maintaining statistics on American industry for nearly as long as there has been a Federal Reserve. The first entry in the data series on Industrial Production is for the month of January ’19. Not 2019 but 1919. With over a hundred years of relatively consistent data, matching up very well [...]

Green Shoot or Domestic Stall?

By |2019-04-16T17:40:46-05:00April 16th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

According to revised figures, things were really looking up for US industry. For the month of April 2018, the Federal Reserve’s Diffusion Index (3-month) for Industrial Production hit 68.2. Like a lot of other sentiment indicators, this was the highest in so long it had to be something. For this particular index, it hadn’t seen [...]

The Deeper Red of The (False) Dawn

By |2019-03-06T11:38:33-05:00March 6th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The concept of an economic “false dawn” was almost entirely unfamiliar to the postwar US experience. We came close in 2002 and the first half of 2003, but eventually the housing bubble era took over. The dot-com recession was mild, sure enough, somehow, though, recovery seemed so elusive for a longer period than the contraction [...]


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