bunds

Why You Should Care Germany More and More Looks Like 2009

By |2019-08-13T13:01:05-04:00August 13th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What if Germany’s economy falls into recession? Unlike, say, Argentina, you can’t so easily dismiss German struggles as an exclusive product of German factors. One of the most orderly and efficient systems in Europe and all the world, when Germany begins to struggle it raises immediate questions about everywhere else. This was the scenario increasingly [...]

Europe Promises More ‘Stimulus’ Seven Years After Draghi’s Promise For ‘Stimulus’

By |2019-07-25T17:50:28-04:00July 25th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It is ironic that the setting for his speech was London. The UK, of course, never gave up the pound in favor of adopting the euro. Still, as the years drag on the biggest menace to Europe’s common currency isn’t a profligate Greek government nor the unfavorable productivity of Club Med. The euro may not [...]

Central Bankers Follow Bonds, Then Insist They Aren’t And That Bonds Agree With Them

By |2019-05-24T13:04:09-04:00May 24th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When central bankers use the word “financial” in an economic context, they mean exclusively stocks. Maybe that’s somewhat appropriate given how bonds are so often treated as monetary equivalents. Then again, if that is the case in the official view, how does anyone reconcile bonds with anything? Economy or money? The hard answer is that [...]

Jay Powell Is In The Way (Literally, for the UST Curve)

By |2019-02-27T12:41:22-05:00February 27th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Early in May 2013, the word “taper” exploded into the mainstream. It was everywhere, scarcely an article written or news story pieced together which hadn't included the term (even though Ben Bernanke never actually said it). The so-called tantrum spread like wildfire simply because of what it represented, the very thing everyone had been waiting [...]