Global Recession Risks Right Now

By |2019-02-06T11:41:30-05:00February 6th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Germany is a tough one to get around. Argentina falls into a bad recession, you can get by believing that’s not particularly unusual or interesting. If its neighbor Brazil becomes shaky, you can still chalk it up to EM volatility. Italy is Europe’s perpetual basket case. China’s a little more difficult, but still that country [...]

Finally Some Real Data…For November

By |2019-02-01T15:45:57-05:00February 1st, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The payroll report wasn’t actually the first. The Treasury Department filed its Treasury International Capital (TIC) update yesterday, about two weeks late due to the federal government shutdown. However, since nobody follows it and the figures relate to a lot that’s beyond the US economy it doesn’t count in the mainstream view. That’s a shame [...]

Repeating The Worst Parts of 2014, EM Version

By |2019-01-29T13:10:51-05:00January 29th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As Argentina’s peso careened toward oblivion, the country’s government begged IMF officials for more money. The organization in June 2018 had already agreed to a bailout expected to total more than $50 billion over three years, the largest in the fund's history. But it wasn’t working, and as the currency crisis accelerated toward the end [...]

China, Brazil, Nightmare Swaps, and More About December (and what it may mean)

By |2019-01-23T12:32:21-05:00January 23rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Central bankers will often tell you exactly what you want to know, at least when it comes to their intentions. You can first begin by reading Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz’s 1963 monetary bible A Monetary History. It’s all in there. From it, central banks all over the world have devised technical schemes intended to [...]