bond yields

Simple Payrolls Right Now, Before Getting To The More Complex Issues

By |2019-09-06T12:33:28-05:00September 6th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Where things stand right now is actually a pretty simple matter. How and why everything might change, as well as how and why we got here, those are more complex issues which depending upon your understanding may not lead to a clear picture of conditions. Right now, we are told, there will be just the [...]

Chart(s) of the Week: You Were Saying Rate Cut?

By |2019-08-02T16:48:31-05:00August 2nd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We’ve got repo, erratic federal funds market, German 2s correlated with it, plunging bond yields, angry swaps (IR and FX), and economic data increasingly and more speedily in the wrong direction. Overseas official entities piled even more into the foreign repo pool, their payments dollar buffer, another definitive sign of a much more acute dollar [...]

Not A Paradox Nor A Conundrum: TICked at Powell

By |2019-07-17T17:04:15-05:00July 17th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It seems a paradox, at least like it is backwards. The financial media doesn’t help because good editorial standards rely upon the opinions and beliefs of credentialed people who have no idea what they are talking about. If you hold high office in some central bank, we are to assume you are competent about monetary [...]

Toward Rate Cuts: What If The Landmine Was Real?

By |2019-07-01T17:05:31-05:00July 1st, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was supposed to be the Chinese government who was going to rescue the global economy. Once the rationalizations ended and officials around the world realized there was serious economic weakness building at the end of 2018 instead of a globally synchronized inflationary recovery, the green shoots of 2019 were going to be in one [...]

Europeans First to Reverse: Draghi Warned Draghi Seventeen Months Ago

By |2019-06-18T12:07:17-05:00June 18th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It wasn’t the basis for rational analysis, it was a very public admission of bias and error. We don’t know why inflation ultimately will do what we believe it will, they said, we just believe that it will so you should, too. It sounds ludicrous, but it is actually very much in keeping with standard [...]

Bills, Beige, And the Consequences of the Disappeared Labor Shortage

By |2019-06-06T12:50:36-05:00June 6th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Early last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that the unemployment rate in the United States had fallen to just 3.6%. It was the lowest in half a century, seemingly an amazing feat for the most puzzling boom ever conceived. Everyone says it is going gangbusters, but is everyone saying so simply because [...]

The Potential For Yield Plunge As Dovish Theater

By |2019-05-17T16:35:09-05:00May 17th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Two on the same day, likely not coincidence. The next stage of “dovishness” may be upon us. It won’t be rate cuts; those won’t happen until all other excuses have been exhausted first. Jay Powell’s confused gang won’t give in until kicking and screaming there’s really nothing else left. The Fed “pause” isn’t working. To [...]

Not Buying The New Stimulus

By |2019-03-07T17:30:23-05:00March 7th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What just happened in Europe? The short answer is T-LTRO. The ECB is getting back to being “accommodative” again. This isn’t what was supposed to be happening at this point in time. Quite the contrary, Europe’s central bank had been expecting to end all its programs and begin normalizing interest rates. The reaction to this [...]

Sinking Shippers Signal Global Goods Troubles

By |2019-02-21T17:35:48-05:00February 21st, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It infects every boardroom across the world. Big business requires decent forecasting, yet time and again it seems they are deprived of what they desperately need. Instead, even after this last decade, the world’s largest companies continue to be surprised by weakness that is far more prevalent than strength. It has been the one constant. [...]

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