bill dudley

Does A Second Floor Make An Effective Ceiling?

By |2019-07-22T17:06:42-05:00July 22nd, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For central bankers like Bill Dudley and Ben Bernanke, the Global Financial Crisis was a godsend. So much had been a disaster it was hard to pin down specific failures. Where does one begin? Practically everything went wrong, so take your pick. The Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC) did its part pointing the finger at [...]

The Fallacious Doctrine of ‘Abundant Reserves’

By |2019-07-22T16:44:42-05:00July 22nd, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It wasn’t the first time it had happened, but to that point it did suggest something had changed. Things were going wrong and afterward the very idea of wrong took on an even more disastrous nature. On Monday, September 29, 2008, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted nearly 778 points. It was the largest single [...]

The Transitory Story, I Repeat, The Transitory Story

By |2019-05-22T15:44:29-05:00May 22nd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Understand what the word “transitory” truly means in this context. It is no different than Ben Bernanke saying, essentially, subprime is contained. To the Fed Chairman in early 2007, this one little corner of the mortgage market in an otherwise booming economy was a transitory blip that booming economy would easily withstand. Just eight days [...]

When The Problem Lies In The One Place Nobody Looks

By |2019-04-24T15:45:31-05:00April 24th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s the most testable of all hypothesis, yet the one which no one wants to test. The central bank is central. All the textbooks say it. You’ve been taught to believe it from your first introduction to Economics and finance. Whatever happens, you aren’t supposed to fight the Fed. The US central bank unleashed powerful, [...]

What Bond Bull Really Means

By |2019-02-04T17:23:12-05:00February 4th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As the saying goes, the plural of anecdotes is not data. It might also be said that the plethora of anecdotes does not make for accurate news. Before around mid-December 2018, media outlets particularly those like Bloomberg and the Wall Street Journal anxious to vindicate the technocrats at the Federal Reserve couldn’t print enough stories [...]

The Politics of Spreading Inversion(s)

By |2019-01-03T18:00:38-05:00January 3rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Clothed in immense self-denial, hung up on absurd self-confidence, Federal Reserve officials gathered on August 7, 2007, to discuss how things really weren’t as bad as everyone seemed to think. There were several key conversations taking place at the FOMC meeting held then all leading nowhere. Policymakers would literally laugh off obvious distress in crucial [...]

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