average hourly wages

Payrolls: Neither Good Nor Bad, Just More Uncertain

By |2019-03-08T12:23:40-05:00March 8th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The BLS giveth, and the BLS taketh away. That’s not really what has happened, of course, but for many it can seem that way. February’s payroll report obviously stands in striking contrast to January’s. The latter was a blowout, over +311k (revised), hyped near and far as proof of decoupling, the US economy the only [...]

Trend-Cycle or Payrolls?

By |2019-01-04T11:57:19-05:00January 4th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On Friday, February, 2, 2001, the BLS reported stellar headline numbers for its Employment Situation release. Preliminary estimates for the Establishment Survey suggested US payrolls had gained +268k in the month of January. To put it in perspective, that would equate to +324k in today’s population, or a bit better than the latest figure. The [...]


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