asian flu

Durable Goods And 1998

By |2019-05-24T11:53:29-04:00May 24th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We have arrived at revisions season once again. It’s that time of year when many if not most (I don’t actually keep track) of economic accounts undergo heightened scrutiny. More data is collected from more comprehensive surveys using far larger samples. These are compared to the existing high frequency panels and changes are made as [...]

The Chicago Way Isn’t Even Partway And It’s Still Not Good For Powell, US Economy

By |2019-05-20T16:37:51-04:00May 20th, 2019|Markets|

In March 1999, Economists James Stock of Harvard and Mark Watson of Princeton published a paper in the Journal of Monetary Economics seeking answers for an inflation problem. For many years, it had been accepted that the unemployment rate was the only measure of economic activity necessary to infer inflation. The implications were enormous, especially [...]

Inflation Falls Again, Dot-com-like

By |2019-02-13T16:37:20-05:00February 13th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

US inflation in January 2019 was, according to the CPI, the lowest in years. At just 1.55% year-over-year, the index hadn’t suggested this level since September 2016 right at the outset of what would become Reflation #3. Having hyped expectations over that interim, US policymakers now have to face the repercussions of unwinding the hysteria. [...]