alan greenspan

Gold: Big Difference Which Kind of Hedge It Truly Is

By |2019-08-30T16:16:19-04:00August 30th, 2019|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It isn’t inflation which is driving gold higher, at least not the current levels of inflation. According to the latest update from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation calculation, the PCE Deflator, continues to significantly undershoot. Monetary policy explicitly calls for that rate to be consistent around 2%, an outcome policymakers [...]

As Chinese Factory Deflation Sets In, A ‘Dovish’ Powell Leans on ‘Uncertainty’

By |2019-07-10T12:24:25-04:00July 10th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s a clever bit of misdirection. In one of the last interviews he gave before passing away, Milton Friedman talked about the true strength of central banks. It wasn’t money and monetary policy, instead he admitted that what they’re really good at is PR. Maybe that’s why you really can’t tell the difference Greenspan to [...]

Proposed Negative Rates Really Expose The Bond Market’s Appreciation For What Is Nothing More Than Magic Number Theory

By |2019-05-21T16:10:42-04:00May 21st, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

By far, the biggest problem in Economics is that it has no sense of itself. There are no self-correction mechanisms embedded within the discipline to make it disciplined. Without having any objective goals from which to measure, the goal is itself. Nobel Prize winning economist Ronald Coase talked about this deficiency in his Nobel Lecture: [...]

The Real Price of Inflation Targeting

By |2019-03-04T16:29:40-05:00March 4th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While still a professor of Economics at Princeton, future Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke was also a Research Associate for the NBER. In 1999, in his capacities with the latter organization, Bernanke advocated for widespread adoption of inflation targeting. At that time, only a few central banks had experimented with it and there wasn’t much [...]

Eurodollar University: The Essential Business of Decoding Curves

By |2019-01-28T16:59:17-05:00January 28th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It was the most common catchphrase of 2017, interest rates have nowhere to go but up. Maybe it was doomed from the start given that Alan Greenspan was among the more prominent commentators expressing this view. In his mind, the bond market was in a bubble and the party was already over. His successors at [...]

Trend-Cycle or Payrolls?

By |2019-01-04T11:57:19-05:00January 4th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

On Friday, February, 2, 2001, the BLS reported stellar headline numbers for its Employment Situation release. Preliminary estimates for the Establishment Survey suggested US payrolls had gained +268k in the month of January. To put it in perspective, that would equate to +324k in today’s population, or a bit better than the latest figure. The [...]

Greenspan to Blame

By |2008-11-06T12:58:56-05:00November 6th, 2008|Economy|

From the American Institute for Economic Research: If there was any “irrational exuberance” in the market place, as Greenspan called it during the boom years that have now ended, the responsibility lies with Federal Reserve System over which he was the chairman until the end of January 2006. With the financial markets awash in Fed-created money, [...]