Stocks

QE’s and Rate Cuts: Two Very Different Sets of Sentiment Drawn From Them

By |2019-11-13T11:10:52-05:00November 13th, 2019|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Stocks|

The stock market’s dichotomy grows ever wider. On the one side, record high prices which are being set by the expectations of a trade deal plus renewed worldwide “stimulus.” Sure, officials everywhere were late to see the downturn coming, but they’ve since woken up and went to work. On the other side, though, there’s not [...]

A Bigger Boat

By |2019-09-10T12:42:43-04:00September 10th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

For every action there is a reaction. Not only is that Sir Isaac Newton’s third law, it’s also a statement about human nature. Unlike physics where causes and effects are near simultaneous, there is a time component to how we interact. In official capacities, even more so. Bureaucratic inertia means a lot more than just [...]

GDP Profits Hold The Answers To All Questions

By |2019-08-29T20:58:05-04:00August 29th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Revisions to second quarter GDP were exceedingly small. The BEA reduced the estimate by a little less than $800 million out of nearly $20 trillion (seasonally-adjusted annual rate). The growth rate therefore declined from 2.03502% (continuously compounded annual rate) to 2.01824%. The release also gave us the first look at second quarter corporate profits. Like [...]

Gifts of Wyoming, Complicating A Simple Story About Bears

By |2019-08-23T16:39:37-04:00August 23rd, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Curiously short on star power, the Jackson Hole gathering this year has already taken an odd turn. It’s been practically subversive. Usually when the Kansas City Fed gets together for these things each and every August, the main attraction is the top central bankers in the major economies. Outside of the Bank of England’s Mark [...]

Anesthesia Right On Schedule

By |2019-06-20T16:54:35-04:00June 20th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

In early January, much of the world was dazed and confused. What the hell just happened? Two weeks before, in the middle of December 2018, Jay Powell stood in front of the microphones confidently declaring his rate hikes justified by an extremely strong economy. Yet, even the stock market had turned against him. When the [...]

More What’s Behind Yield Curve: Now Two Straight Negative Quarters For Corporate Profit

By |2019-05-30T16:10:18-04:00May 30th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) piled on more bad news to the otherwise pleasing GDP headline for the first quarter. In its first revision to the preliminary estimate, the government agency said output advanced just a little less than first thought. This wasn’t actually the substance of their message. Accompanying this first revision was [...]

Chart (Deluge) Of The Month

By |2019-05-24T16:44:54-04:00May 24th, 2019|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

In Europe, the ECB’s minutes for its April 2019 meeting claimed: Financial market developments, which were typically more forward looking, were more upbeat. In the US, the Federal Reserve’s minutes for its April 2019 meeting claimed: Participants noted that even if global economic and financial conditions continued to improve, a patient approach would likely remain [...]

Green Shoot or Domestic Stall?

By |2019-04-16T17:40:46-04:00April 16th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

According to revised figures, things were really looking up for US industry. For the month of April 2018, the Federal Reserve’s Diffusion Index (3-month) for Industrial Production hit 68.2. Like a lot of other sentiment indicators, this was the highest in so long it had to be something. For this particular index, it hadn’t seen [...]

Retail Sales In Bad Company, Decouple from Decoupling

By |2019-04-01T12:17:01-04:00April 1st, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

In a way, the government shutdown couldn’t have come at a more opportune moment. As workers all throughout the sprawling bureaucracy were furloughed, markets had run into chaos. Even the seemingly invincible stock market was pummeled, a technical bear market emerged on Wall Street as people began to really consider increasingly loud economic risks. There [...]

Corporate Profits Are In The Middle of the Only Debate Which Matters

By |2019-03-28T16:52:51-04:00March 28th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The BEA has completed its unscheduled departure from its release schedule. Due to the prior federal government shutdown, the government agency was only able to put together two estimates for Q4 2018 real GDP. The first had seemed to calm some fears that US growth was wobbly toward the end of last year, aligning uncomfortably [...]