Currencies

The Frights of Repo-ween: Technical Things and Scaredy-cats

By |2019-10-31T20:50:18-04:00October 31st, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s not the level of bank reserves. It never was. QT was always a distraction. As I’ve said from the very beginning, the same thing the Fed’s researchers (rather than top policymakers) will say you if you ask them, the level of bank reserves only tells us what the Fed is doing. It does not, [...]

More Synchronized, More Downturn, Still Global

By |2019-10-31T20:44:02-04:00October 31st, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

China was the world economy’s best hope in 2017. Like it was the only realistic chance to push out of the post-2008 doldrums, a malaise that has grown increasingly spasmatic and dangerous the longer it goes on. Communist authorities, some of them, anyway, reacted to Euro$ #3’s fallout early on in 2016 by dusting off [...]

The Inventory Context For Rate Cuts and Their Real Nature/Purpose

By |2019-10-30T20:38:31-04:00October 30th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What typically distinguishes recessions from downturns is the inventory cycle. Even in 2008, that was the basis for the Great “Recession.” It was distinguished most prominently by the financial conditions and global-reaching panic, true, but the effects of the monetary crash registered heaviest in the various parts of that inventory process. An economy for whatever [...]

Three (Rate Cuts) and GDP, Where (How) Does It End?

By |2019-10-30T20:31:45-04:00October 30th, 2019|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Federal Reserve has indicated that it will now pause – for a second time, supposedly. Remember the first: after raising its benchmark rates apparatus in December while still talking about an inflationary growth acceleration requiring still more hikes, in a matter of weeks that was transformed into a temporary suspension of them. Expecting the [...]

There’s No S-L-R In R-E-P-O

By |2019-10-29T20:18:14-04:00October 29th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

JP Morgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon has been running around Washington claiming that mid-September’s repo rumble was the result of the post-crisis regulatory environment. He now says that his bank had the spare cash and was willing to cash in on double digit repo rates but it was government rules which prevented that from happening. It’s [...]

More Points For, And Pointing To, The Midpoint

By |2019-10-28T19:09:09-04:00October 28th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s not surprising that the Census Bureau would report another weird sideways trend in wholesale sales. After all, the agency has already produced that kind of pattern in the related data for durable goods. For reasons that aren’t going to be explained, economic activity across the supply chain from producers to consumers has been curtailed. [...]

Consumers Have To or Want To with Revolving Credit?

By |2019-09-11T17:00:04-04:00September 11th, 2019|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Federal Reserve reported yesterday that revolving consumer credit in the US rose by a seasonally adjusted $10 billion in the month of July 2019. That was the largest single monthly increase since November 2017. Given how the latter month was related to “residual seasonality”, meaning Americans spending perhaps more than they wanted for the [...]