Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy

QE’s and Rate Cuts: Two Very Different Sets of Sentiment Drawn From Them

By |2019-11-13T11:10:52-05:00November 13th, 2019|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Stocks|

The stock market’s dichotomy grows ever wider. On the one side, record high prices which are being set by the expectations of a trade deal plus renewed worldwide “stimulus.” Sure, officials everywhere were late to see the downturn coming, but they’ve since woken up and went to work. On the other side, though, there’s not [...]

The Real Boom Potential

By |2019-11-08T16:08:52-05:00November 8th, 2019|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy|

For the last five years Larry Summers has called it secular stagnation. It’s the right general idea as far as the result, if totally wrong as to its cause. Alvin Hansen, who first coined the term and thought up the thesis in the thirties, was thoroughly disproved by the fifties. Some, perhaps many Economists today [...]

A Perfect Example of the Euro$ Squeeze

By |2019-11-07T16:22:14-05:00November 7th, 2019|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy|

Germany’s vast industrial sector continued in the tank in September. According to new estimates from deStatis, that country’s government agency responsible for maintaining economic data, Industrial Production dropped by another 4% year-over-year during the month of September 2019. It was the fifth consecutive monthly decline at around that alarming rate. Four percent doesn’t sound like [...]

You Have To Try Really Hard Not To See It

By |2019-11-06T22:11:06-05:00November 6th, 2019|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy|

In early September, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) released figures for its non-manufacturing PMI that calmed nervous markets. A few weeks before anyone would start talking about repo, repo operations, and not-QE asset purchases, recession and slowdown fears were already prevalent. It hadn’t been a very good summer to that end, the promised second [...]

Still Stuck In Between

By |2019-11-06T20:58:35-05:00November 6th, 2019|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy|

Note: originally published Friday, Nov 1 There wasn’t much by way of the ISM’s Manufacturing PMI to allay fears of recession. Much like the payroll numbers, an uncolored analysis of them, anyway, there was far more bad than good. For the month of October 2019, the index rose slightly from September’s decade low. At 48.3, [...]