Nervous people tend not to sit still. The term nervous energy means just that. When you’re worried about something, your mind is telling you to use up the resources your body is providing to search for a fix to whatever it is that’s bothering you. Mitigation at the very least.
It really is a simple thing sometimes. In the UST futures market, if you have large financial positions leveraged in every way possible, there’s already risk. If you start to be worried more than normal, you’re going to find a way to use up that nervous energy.
Long bond futures.
They ticked up over the 1mm mark last week. That could only mean a lot of very nervous deep players in fixed income, bond trading, whatever euphemism you want to use. FICC.
Liquidity risk is paramount. The fact that the US government is broke and cannot realistically find a way to grow itself out of its mess, none of that matters TOMORROW. Those are considerations for the future. Even if that future reckoning is closer than many would like, it doesn’t make a difference right now.
Open Interest up = liquidity hedging = bond yields tumbling. Third time since November.
They will be dragged into them kicking and screaming, but the rate cuts are coming anyway.