Weekly Chart Review

Sep 6th, 2010 by Joseph Y. Calhoun, III

The dollar index appears to have failed in its attempt to break above the 50 day MA. I fully expect to revisit the all time lows of 2008 before this is all over. Stagflation anyone?

The dollar index appears to have failed in its attempt to break above the 50 day MA. I fully expect to revisit the all time lows of 2008 before this is all over. Stagflation anyone?

Dollar? Who care? Capital is flowing to where it is treated best and that includes Brazil for now. Whether that survives the election remains to be seen but for now investors want Reals.

Dollar? Who care? Capital is flowing to where it is treated best and that includes Brazil for now. Whether that survives the election remains to be seen but for now investors want Reals.

A weal dollar also means investors favor hard assets like commodities. The DJ-AIG is outperforming the GSCI right now because it is less dependent on energy but I suspect that will even out if there is a general commodity bull market - and I think that is inevitable.

A weal dollar also means investors favor hard assets like commodities. The DJ-AIG is outperforming the GSCI right now because it is less dependent on energy but I suspect that will even out if there is a general commodity bull market - and I think that is inevitable.

The Aussie dollar is back near its old highs and should continue to track commodity prices.

The Aussie dollar is back near its old highs and should continue to track commodity prices.

History says the Canadian dollar should trend with the Aussie version but it is lagging for some reason. Unless there is a problem with the Canadian economy there might be a big catchup move coming.

History says the Canadian dollar should trend with the Aussie version but it is lagging for some reason. Unless there is a problem with the Canadian economy there might be a big catchup move coming.

If real estate is the biggest problem with the US economy why are REITs making new highs? You guessed it - the dollar.

If real estate is the biggest problem with the US economy why are REITs making new highs? You guessed it - the dollar.

All the loose monetary policy at the Fed affects Asian real estate too.

All the loose monetary policy at the Fed affects Asian real estate too.

Agricultural commodities pushed to new highs last week. I think this trend has legs.

Agricultural commodities pushed to new highs last week. I think this trend has legs.

Platinum has built a base and is poised for a big move if the dollar keeps falling.

Platinum has built a base and is poised for a big move if the dollar keeps falling.

Silver has broken out.

Silver has broken out.

The straight up bond market has finally taken a pause. At a minimum a period of consolidation should be expected but I suspect this top will turn into something more serious.

The straight up bond market has finally taken a pause. At a minimum a period of consolidation should be expected but I suspect this top will turn into something more serious.

Foreign bonds are probably a better bet.

Foreign bonds are probably a better bet.

The high yield market may be a hiding place for bond investors. By the way, this market is why I never took the double dip scenario seriously. If we are headed for a new recession high yield bonds will reflect the higher odds of default.

The high yield market may be a hiding place for bond investors. By the way, this market is why I never took the double dip scenario seriously. If we are headed for a new recession high yield bonds will reflect the higher odds of default.

I've been a champion of the Chilean market for a while now and our Select Countries portfolio has benefitted greatly from the near doubling we've seen since our initial purchase, but this is getting a little scary. Where will this market go if copper really takes off?

I've been a champion of the Chilean market for a while now and our Select Countries portfolio has benefited greatly from the near doubling we've seen since our initial purchase, but this is getting a little scary. Where will this market go if copper really takes off?

We also have Peru in the Select Countries portfolio and this chart is also a bit vertigo inducing.

We also have Peru in the Select Countries portfolio and this chart is also a bit vertigo inducing.

Sweden is one of the few markets I like in Europe along with Switzerland.

Sweden is one of the few markets I like in Europe along with Switzerland.

Considering the strength of the yen, the resilience of the Japanese market is impressive.

Considering the strength of the yen, the resilience of the Japanese market is impressive.

The fact that Congress hasn't ratified the free trade agreement doesn't seem to have affected Colombia. Yes, this one is in the Select Countries portfolio too.

The fact that Congress hasn't ratified the free trade agreement doesn't seem to have affected Colombia. Yes, this one is in the Select Countries portfolio too.

The broker-dealer ETF may have made a double bottom. GS and MS both acted well last week.

The broker-dealer ETF may have made a double bottom. GS and MS both acted well last week.

Consumer stocks don't seem to be flashing a new recession either.

Consumer stocks don't seem to be flashing a new recession either.

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