Economic Analysis
6/26 - So how should we view the current state of the economy? Should we be optimistic like the Eagles or join the disciples of Lord Keynes in the pessimists camp? The US economy, despite the improving economic statistics, remains in recession and predicting a robust recovery would seem to be unrealistic in the extreme. And yet the contrarian in me feels uncomfortable adopting the mainstream view that this recovery will be meek and mild like the recovery from the last recession. So is there any reason to believe that a sharp recovery is in our future? The answer is an unequivocal yes….and no. Yes, over the next couple of years we could see a sharp recovery from the credit market, government induced cliff dive of the last 9 months. And no, in the longer term, the US economy is likely to produce growth that is less than the long term average of roughly 4%. Read more….
Alhambra Investments tracks and analyzes key economic reports and indicators on a daily basis. Below are charts to several of the most compelling indicators, as well as archives of the most recent reports analyzed:
Economic Charts
Claims need to fall at least under 400,000 to see significant job growth. We're not there yet.
This is inflation. The price rises that most people call inflation are the result but this is the cause. There will be consequences.
Borrowing from the Fed continues to fall.
Term Auction Credit is down to $23 billion.
Excess reserves held at the Fed continue to grow.
Real retail sales have stabilized but aren't growing much yet. That likely won't happen until we see some job growth.
The inventory to sales ratio has now fallen enough that inventories will have to be replenished. That's good news for GDP.
Retail sales are rising but a good portion of the gain is from rising prices.
Inventories haven't even begun to be rebuilt yet.