Economic Analysis

 

6/26 - So how should we view the current state of the economy? Should we be optimistic like the Eagles or join the disciples of Lord Keynes in the pessimists camp? The US economy, despite the improving economic statistics, remains in recession and predicting a robust recovery would seem to be unrealistic in the extreme. And yet the contrarian in me feels uncomfortable adopting the mainstream view that this recovery will be meek and mild like the recovery from the last recession. So is there any reason to believe that a sharp recovery is in our future? The answer is an unequivocal yes….and no. Yes, over the next couple of years we could see a sharp recovery from the credit market, government induced cliff dive of the last 9 months. And no, in the longer term, the US economy is likely to produce growth that is less than the long term average of roughly 4%. Read more….

  

Alhambra Investments tracks and analyzes key economic reports and indicators on a daily basis. Below are charts to several of the most compelling indicators, as well as archives of the most recent reports analyzed:

Archives - Economic Reports

Economic Calendar

 

Economic Charts

 

Real retail sales have stabilized and turned higher.
Real retail sales have stabilized and turned higher.

Household financial obligations as a percentage of disposable income has corrected some and doesn't look so scary.
Household financial obligations as a percentage of disposable income has corrected some and doesn’t look so scary.

 

Banks may not be lending to businesses but they have no reluctance to lend to government.
Banks may not be lending to businesses but they have no reluctance to lend to government.

 

Business loans are still contracting. Part of that is a reluctance lend but the larger part is a reluctance to borrow.
Business loans are still contracting. Part of that is a reluctance lend but the larger part is a reluctance to borrow.
 

This is inflation. The price rises that most people call inflation are the result but this is the cause. There will be consequences.

This is inflation. The price rises that most people call inflation are the result but this is the cause. There will be consequences.

Borrowing from the Fed continues to fall.

Borrowing from the Fed continues to fall.

Term Auction Credit is down to $23 billion.

Term Auction Credit is down to $23 billion.

Excess reserves held at the Fed continue to grow.

Excess reserves held at the Fed continue to grow.

Real retail sales have stabilized but aren't growing much yet. That likely won't happen until we see some job growth.

Real retail sales have stabilized but aren't growing much yet. That likely won't happen until we see some job growth.

The inventory to sales ratio has now fallen enough that inventories will have to be replenished. That's good news for GDP.

The inventory to sales ratio has now fallen enough that inventories will have to be replenished. That's good news for GDP.

Retai9l sales are rising but a good portion of the gain is from rising prices.

Retail sales are rising but a good portion of the gain is from rising prices.

 

Inventories haven't even begun to be rebuilt yet.

Inventories haven't even begun to be rebuilt yet.