Industry Watch - Semiconductors

Jul 13th, 2010 by A.I. Research

Intel today reported blockbuster earnings results, easily outpacing analyst’s expectations while also delivering an upbeat forecast for the rest of the year:

Intel earned 51 cents a share in the second quarter, against a loss of 7 cents a share this time last year.

Revenue swelled to $10.8 billion, up from $8.024 billion last year.

A group of equity analysts who follow Intel expected on average for the company to report a profit of 43 cents a share, according to Thomson Reuters.

Intel’s revenue forecast of $11.20 billion to $12 billion for the third quarter is higher than analysts’ projections for $10.92 billion.

Intel also raised its profit forecast. The company now expects gross profit margin—a key measure of a company’s ability to control costs—of 64 percent to 68 percent of revenue. Its previous forecast was for 62 percent to 66 percent. - CNBC

With news of Intel’s “best quarter ever” setting the stage for tomorrow’s jump in price, we at Alhambra caution investors in the very short-term when it comes to the semiconductor space. The news couldn’t have been better today, but all the euphoria could lead to a disappointing next few days. Just look at the charts:

With Intel up over 8% in the after-hours session, the stock seems poised to open tomorrow very close to the 22.50 level, which would would put it right at resistance. Also, with the run-up in stocks over the past two weeks, the stock is already slightly overbought, even before tomorrow’s action. It appears as if the stock will move above the upper level of the bollinger bands, once again signalling an over-bought condition.

The same holds true for Altera Corp. ALTR and Xilinx Inc. XLNX, two other stocks in the space.

Both are over the 70 level in the relative strength index, both have already crossed the upper bollinger band, and both seem poised to open around the $29 level, a level of resistance. Looks like a short to me.

And to top it all off, the VIX index is right at support at the 200-day moving average, the Nasdaq composite is right under both the 50 and the 200-day moving average, and the iShares Semiconductor index [[IGW]] is still in a downtrend. If you aren’t already in the space, hold out for a few days. It seems like a better entry point will soon appear.

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