Posted by Joseph Y. Calhoun, III

Retail sales fell in September:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $344.7 billion, a decrease of 1.5 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 5.7 percent (±0.7%) below September 2008. Total sales for the July through September 2009 period were down 6.6 percent (±0.3%) from the same period a year ago. The July to August 2009 percent change was revised from +2.7 percent (±0.5%) to +2.2 percent (±0.2%).

Retail trade sales were down 1.7 percent (±0.7%) from August 2009 and 6.4 percent (±0.7%) below last year. Gasoline stations sales were down 25.3 percent (±1.3%) from September 2008 and building material and garden equipment and supplies dealers were down 13.0 percent (±2.0%) from last year.

Ex autos, sales were up 0.5%, but a lot of that was due to higher gas station sales. I don’t remember gas prices rising much last month, so that might not just be a function of higher prices. In general the report shows a mixed picture. Consumers are cautious but not hiding under a rock. While sales are down a lot year over year, a lot of that is due to lower energy prices. As we get nearer the end of the year, comparisons should be easier.

Sep             Aug
2009            2009
adv.            prel.
from–          from–

NAICS                       Kind of Business                      Aug     Sep     Jul     Aug
Code                                                                       2009    2008    2009    2008
(p)       (r)       (r)        (r)

Retail & food Services, total………………..     -1.5    -5.7    +2.2    -5.8

Total (excl. motor vehicle &  parts )………. +0.5    -4.9    +1.0    -6.3

Retail …………………………….                 -1.7    -6.4    +2.4    -6.5

441          Motor vehicle & parts dealers……………..   -10.4    -9.3    +7.8    -3.2
4411,4412       Auto & other motor veh. dealers…..  -11.8   -10.4    +8.8    -3.3

442          Furniture & home furnishings stores……   +1.4    -6.5    -0.8   -11.5

443          Electronics & appliance stores……………….  0.0    -9.7    +0.5   -11.2

444          Building material & garden eq. & supplies dealers     -0.2   -13.0    -1.2   -13.7

445          Food & beverage stores………………………  +0.7    +0.4    +0.8    -0.9
4451          Grocery stores…………………………….       +0.9    +0.2    +0.6    -1.4

446          Health & personal care stores……………..   +0.8    +3.5    +0.5    +2.7

447          Gasoline stations…………………………..       +1.1   -25.3    +4.7   -26.8

448          Clothing & clothing accessories stores…   +0.5    -1.3    +1.1    -5.7

451          Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores. +0.1    +2.0    +1.8    -1.1

452          General merchandise stores…………………..  +0.9    +1.1    +1.2    -1.0
4521          Department stores (ex. L.D.)………………..     +0.4    -3.7    +1.1    -5.9

453          Miscellaneous stores retailers……………….     -1.9    -4.5    +0.9    -2.9

454          Nonstore retailers………………………….            -0.1    -2.3    +0.1    -3.1

722          Food services & drinking places………………   +0.2    +0.6    +0.6    +0.8