Posted by Marcelo Perez

The number of people filing for first time unemployment benefits declined in the latest week, temporarily halting the sharp upward trend that began during the first part of this new year. According to the US Department of Labor, for the week ending March 14th, initial jobless claims fell by 12,000 to stand at 646,000. That’s slightly off the highest levels seen since October 1982. The reading is better than forecast, as expectations were for a slight increase to 654,000 new claims. For some perspective: initial claims running consistently atop the 350,000 mark would signal some weakening in the labor market. Claims above 400,000 are seen by many as a signal of recession.

Having witnessed extremely volatile measurements in the past few weeks, it is wise to consider the four-week moving average of initial claims, which smooths out one-time factors such as bad weather or holidays. The four-week average continued its trek upwards, rising by 3,750 to a multi-decade high of 654,750. It’s at the highest level since October 1982.

The underlying trend in claims is still rising, and could reach a peak of 750,000 - Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist with High Frequency Economics

Over the past few months, businesses have been laying off more employees at an increasing pace, and the unemployed are having a much harder time looking for a replacement job. A year ago, initial claims were at 375,000.

But, although claims are at levels not seen since the severe 1982 recession, the context today is much different. For one, the workforce is around 50% larger than it was in 1982, so a frightening 600,000+ number is not nearly as bad as it was then.

Continuing claims are once again making new records, after dropping for the first time in seven weeks:

The number of people collecting state unemployment benefits jumped by 185,000 to a record seasonally adjusted 5.47 million in the week ending March 7. The four-week average of these ongoing claims increased 118,750 to 5.25 million, also a record-high. - MarketWatch

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