Are we near an inflection point in markets? I have heard numerous talking heads on CNBC recently saying that markets are near a turning point. The mantra goes something like this: the dollar is near a bottom, therefore commodities are topping out and stocks will move higher. While all this may come true, I think [...]
Prediction markets have proven very accurate at predicting future events such as election outcomes. These markets tend to be more accurate than polls because real money is at risk. Telling CNBC that you think we’re in recession carries no risk except reputationally and even that is minimal. If economists got fired for getting predictions wrong, [...]
The FOMC cut interest rates by another 1/4 point today. Here is the statement released after the meeting with my interpretation of its real meaning:
The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to lower its target for the federal funds rate 25 basis points to 2 percent.
We really didn’t have any good reason but the [...]
1st Quarter GDP grew 0.6%. Not a great number under any circumstances but still not a negative number. I have been consistent in my belief that the US economy will avoid recession - for now. The problems in the economy are primarily financial problems. These problems are obviously having an effect on the economy but [...]
